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Prediction for CME (2023-09-14T07:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-14T07:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26915/-1
CME Note: Bright CME NW in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2 that may be associated with a faint partial to full halo. The source is a filament eruption seen between AR's 13425 & 13423 stretching from ~N22W40 to ~N26W55. Eruption begins ~2023-09-14T06:40Z in SDO/AIA 304 followed by brightening at the foot points of the source location. Associated dimming, minor EUV wave, moving/opening field lines, and post-eruptive arcade are visible in most SDO/AIA wavelengths including 193, 171, 211, and 131. The visible dimming is seen primarily north of the filament location with the minor EUV wave primarily seen along the W/NW limb in SDO/AIA 211. An M-class flare is associated with the post-eruptive arcade occurring between AR's 13425 & 13423. Arrival signature is characterized by a relatively modest jump in ion density and temperature, as well as in magnetic field, with B total reaching 8nT. Preceded by a relatively gradual increase in solar wind speed from 400 to 480 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-17T01:53Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-16T18:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-09-14T11:39Z (and 2023-09-14T13:03Z)
Radial velocity (km/s): 830 (and 559)
Longitude (deg): 017W (and 048W)
Latitude (deg): 20N (and 18N)
Half-angular width (deg): 32 (and 32)

Notes: Difficult analysis, fitted as two CME lobes to St A COR2 and Lasco C3, as possibly two linked events (the M1.4 flare itself was two-stage). Perhaps visible in e.g. AIA304 at 14/06:51Z and 14/07:18Z. The above is the very slightly later and apparently more south and west-directed helix. (Apparent) shock not modelled. MOSWOC Enlil has a relatively underdone grasp of antecedent solar wind conditions, and the CME arrival was consequently brought forward from 16/22:00UTC to 16/18:00UTC.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence.

Lead Time: 57.07 hour(s)
Difference: 7.88 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-09-14T16:49Z

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